Monday, May 28, 2007

A Moose for All Seasons

Faithful 26goingon27 readers may have noticed our recent lampooning of Mike Mussina. Now, I personally am a “Moose Man”, and not in that weird Canadian sort of way, but he certainly deserved the criticism when he came up short in a must-win game against Boston last week. Now, I believe that Moose's failings are the result of high expectations; he’s a very good pitcher, who is supposed to be a great pitcher. For instance, Moose has never won 20 games, but he has won 19 twice, 18 three times, and 17 twice. Perhaps more impressive is that in 16 major league seasons, Moose has won at least 15 games ten times. Here’s another way to look at it, although he’s never won a Cy Young Award, he’s finished in the top 6 times. Similarly, while never winning the ERA crown, he’s been in the top 5 seven times. There’s also the near no-hitters and near perfect games. Those are all impressive accomplishments that put him on the almost Hall of Fame status.

Despite those accomplishments, Moose has earned his share of criticism, for one, he was one of the most highly paid players in the game and he was not one of the five best pitchers in the game during that period. Furthermore, he’s a whiner, complaining about having his starts mixed up and other assorted things. He doesn’t have overpowering stuff, but gets a lot of strikeouts, but gets them with off speed pitches and a knuckle-curve - very unsexy. Finally, the Yankees have not won a World Series since he’s been here. It is that last factor that has somehow earned him the perception of being unclutch, the harshest of insults to be hurled at a Yankee. So, is Moose truly unclutch or is it just perception? Here’s a look at how he’s performed in the playoffs for the Bronx Bombers.

Note: I am ignoring Mussina’s career with the Orioles. I realize this may be unfair to him, however we're concerned with Mike as a Yank not an O.

2001
American League Division Series against Oakland Athletics

Mussina’s first playoff appearance for the Yankees was in 2001 against the Athletics. Mussina pitched game 3 against Barry Zito, with the Yankees down 2 games to none. Moose pitched very well in that game, scattering 4 hits and a walk over 7 innings, while striking out 4. The Yankees won 1-0 and proceeded to take the next two games to win the series. Unfortunately, Moose’s performance tends to get overshadowed by some guy named Jeter and some flip play he made. It is worth noting that Roger Clemens and Andy Pettitte, guys most Yankee fans count as playoff dependable, lost the first 2 games of the series. I’d say this counts as a very good pitching performance in a must win situation, and is therefore a clutch start.
Yankees win the series 3-2

American League Championship Series against Seattle Mariners
Against the Mariners, Moose pitched game 2, with the Yanks having won the opener. Once again Moose pitched well, 6 innings, 4 hits, 1 walk, 2 runs and 3 Ks. The Yanks won 3-2. So far, so good for the Moose man.
Yankees win the series 4-1.


World Series against the Arizona Diamondbacks
The World Series that year was a memorable one for a lot of reasons better chronicled in other places. Moose pitched games 1 and 5. In game 1, Moose got hammered, getting knocked out in the third inning after giving up 5 runs and 6 hits, although 2 of the runs were unearned and he did strike out 4. In game 5, better known for Scott Brosius’ Tino Martinez imitation, Moose pitched very well, going 8 innings, scattering 5 hits and striking out 10, though he did give up 2 solo homers. Once again, an excellent pitching performance was obscured by other Yankees’ late inning heroics.
The Yankees lose the series 4-3.

So in the 2001 playoffs, Moose makes 4 starts and wins 3, so far, so clutch. Clemens had an outstanding playoff run in 2001, but otherwise, Moose was our second best playoff pitcher that year.

2002
American League Division Series against Angels of Anaheim, Los Angeles, San Francisco, Sonoma County, Orange County, etc.

Moose pitched game 3 against the Angels. The series was tied 1-1 going into this game. An awful start for Moose - 4 innings, 6 hits, 4 runs and 1 K. Most disturbing was the Yankees got off to a good start against Angel’s starter Ramon Ortiz, scoring 6 off him in the first 3 innings and Moose could not hold the lead. Although Mike Stanton would eventually blow this game, Moose deserves the lions’ share of the blame for this loss.

Note: The Yankee pitchers were awful in this series. Clemens won game 1, but gave up 4 runs in 5.2 innings; Pettitte, got knocked out after 3 innings in game 2, giving up 4 runs and 8 hits, and finally Boomer Wells gave up 8 in 4.2 innings in the finale. Overall, a horrid showing by the Pinstriped hurlers.
The Yankees lose the series 3-1.

2003
American League Division Series against the Minnesota Twins

Moose was out dueled by Johan Santana and the Twins’ bullpen in game 1 of the American League Division. Still, Moose pitched well, giving up 3 runs over 7 innings while striking out 6. Hard to put this loss on him.
The Yankees win the series 3-1.

American League Championship Series against the Boston Red Sox
In game 1 of a superb American League Championship Series against Boston, Moose was off his game. Going 5.2 innings, giving up 8 hits, 4 runs on 3 homeruns and only striking out 4, while being bested by knuckler Tim Wakefield. In game 4, Moose did a far better job then in game 1, striking out 10 and giving up 3 runs over 6.2 innings, but still lost to Wakefield who threw a gem. Throughout this series, Mussina had a terrible time with the longball, giving up 5 homers in his two starts.

In game 7, Moose shined brightly in a game that is forever memorialized in baseball lore. In the 4th inning with the Bombers down 4-0 and facing a sharp Pedro Martinez, Moose came in with 2 on and no one out. Giving up another run at this point could have proven deadly, but with cool precision, Moose got Jason Varitek to strike out and Johnny Damon to ground into a double play - snuffing out the threat. While the MLB commercials love showing Aaron Boone’s shot, Moose’s pitching in the 4th was a significant factor in turning the game around.
The Yankees beat Boston 4-3.

World Series against Florida Marlins
In the World Series against Florida, Moose was outstanding in game 3, giving up 1 run in 7 innings, while striking out 9. The Yanks did lose this series in 6, but Moose pitched the best game out of any Yankee starter.
Yankees lose the series 4-2.

2003 was a fairly good playoff run for Mussina. Overall he made 4 starts, was outstanding in 1, good in another, okay in a third, and awful in the 4th. He also deserves credit for his outstanding relief work.

2004
American League Division Series against the Minnesota Twins
In the American League Division Series against the Twins, Mussina was once again bested by Johan Santana, not that there’s anything wrong with that. Moose pitched very well, 7 innings, 7 hits, 2 runs and 7 strikeouts.
The Yankees win the series 3-1.

American League Championship Series against the Boston Red Sox
I’m not going to spend a lot of time on the series against Boston, because it will just make me mad. So, in short, Moose was solid in game 1, going 6.2 innings and striking out 8 while giving up 4 runs in a Yankees win. In game 5, Moose pitched well, giving up 2 runs in 6 innings while striking out 7.
No results as this series never really happened.

2005
American League Division Series against the Anaheim Angels of the Northwest

Against the Angels, Moose had two starts. He was workmanlike in game 1, getting the win, while pitching 5.2 innings, striking out 4 and giving up 0 runs. Although he wasn’t scored upon, the fact that he didn’t make it out of the 6th tarnishes this start. In game 5, Moose was awful, getting knocked out in the third after giving up 5 runs on 6 hits, while striking out 3. (This game featured the fielding ineptitude of Gary Sheffield and Bubba Crosby, so those runs are a bit misleading, he was bad, but not that bad).
Yankees lose the series 3-2.

2006
American League Division Series against the Detroit Tigers

Moose pitched game 2 of the American League Division series against Detroit.
I was at this game, it was painful.

Moose’s line was solid, 7 innings, 4 runs, 8 hits and 5 strikeouts. Moose wasn’t bad, but disappointing in the sense that he just could not hold Detroit down in what should have been a winnable game.
Yankees lose the series 3-1.

In conclusion, Moose has been a solid, but unspectacular postseason pitcher. His two signature performances were his winning the “Flip” game in 2001 and his relief appearance against Boston in 2004. His worst performances were game 5 of the 2005 ALDS, game 1 of the 2001 WS, and game 3 of the 2002 ALDS. He was also outstanding in the 2003 World Series against Florida and in game 5 of the 2001 World Series against Arizona. Other than that Moose has a mixture of solid but unspectacular starts. Truth be told, his overall numbers are solid, he just lacks those killer, spectacular post season starts that make Yankee fans embrace Pettitte, Clemens, Cone and El Duque. In other words, he is basically the same pitcher in the post season as he is in the regular season, usually solid, sometimes spectacular and occasionally awful. He doesn’t seem to elevate his game, but he doesn’t pitch poorly either. Is he clutch, unclutch, I’m not sure? He’s won some big games in the post season, Moose just lacks that signature game, perhaps this is the year he gets it.

Our First Comment


We here at 26goingon27 truly appreciate anyone who reads our site or takes the time and effort to comment on it. Normally, we won’t respond to every comment, but since this is our first, we are. I’m not reprinting the whole thing, scroll down and link to it if you want to read it. Basically anonymous thinks we’re a bunch of excuse makers, clearly not understanding analysis, and that Brian Cashman is a jerk. I’m not going to bother with the trite stuff, but as for the rest, let the lesson begin.

Anonymous takes us through a position by position breakdown, his or her or its comments are in italics. I’m only commenting where I disagree.

He doesn’t mention King Jorge, I can only assume because even he knows how good Jorge is, so he got one thing right.

1B - doug m., despite your hate for him should just play every day. he is hitting better in may and you dont need a home run hitter at every spot, especially 9th. you take his defence forgranted which is necessary with cano at 2nd. he has already come up with some huge plays
Look, I’m not going to debate this, if you think Doogie is a good player you’re an idiot. The Yanks don’t need homerun hitters at each position, but they need actual real life MLB hitters, something Doug is not. If you doubt me go to www.baseballreference.com, type in Doug, then type in any other Major League First Basemen, if you don’t see a difference go watch the WNBA.

CF - damon is getting older, is breaking down more and more every day and has an arm like a wet noodle. damon was a decent signing because it took away a key component from the sox and he gives them a nice leadoff hitter but still, another cashman fucked up. he is clearly on the decline and playing hurt...cashman could have signed beltran for $20M less than the mets but he passed, a major fuckup passing on a premier gold glove CF who is a true 5 tool player.
I agree and disagree. Yes, the Yankees should have signed Carlos Beltran. Yes it is always a risk when you sign a 30 year old, especially when he relies on his legs. However, given the fact that Gary Matthews Jr. and Juan Pierre just got huge contracts and Damon is clearly better than both of them, this is looking like something of a discount. Also to be fair, Damon had a huge season last year.

RF - abreau wont slump the whole season but he lost his power a while ago and plays right field like the wall is wrapped in barb wire. watching him go back on a fly ball has actually become really hilarious. good job signing an awful RF in MLB's shortest right field park. another brilliant cashman move.
Look Abreu has clearly slumped since he stopped using the grey glove. However, he tore it up last year and will probably bounce back. Also, Cashman gave up a minor league middle reliever and a shortstop who has almost no chance of being a good MLB player for one of the best outfielder in baseball over the past 7 seasons. If you think this is somehow a bad move, you’re probably Steve Phillips.

Giambi- one of the worst yankee signings. its always something with him whether its bone chips, stomach virus, cancer, sars or some ridiculous shit that puts him on the DL. also, he was a disaster at first the past few years and they finally had enough. for such a waste he has a big mouth...good teammate throwing a-rod under the bus last season in the SI article. he has done nothing aside from causing distractions in the clubhouse. do you know the yankees owe him 21M next season?? and 23M the following?!? CASH-MONEY, brilliant signing
The guy has been a stud when healthy, not so when hurt. His teammates love him, he’s the only guy willing to talk to the press, and he is the only person in MLB to come clean about steroids. Is he being paid too much, absolutely, but at the time no one questioned this deal.


kei igawa another terrible move by cashman
Just to be clear the New York Mets and the Seattle Mariners both really wanted Igawa and bid highly for him. In retrospect was this a bad move, yes, but look its not like the Yanks were the only team who thought he’d be good.

farnsworth another terrible move by cashman (should have tried to trade him to philly with melky for brett myers insted of giving clemens that joke of a contract)
Ummm…evidently anonymous knows something we don’t, because as far as I can tell this trade was never on the table.

cashman is also a douchebag because he could have got mike gonzalez straight up for melky from the pirates but passed. like the yanks ever need to hold on to a corner outfielder, the most expendable piece in baseball. melky will never be an every day outfielder anyway since he isnt a $15M player
My favorite of all comments. Look, there are a few absolute’s in baseball, one is don’t trade a young everyday player who shows promise for a middle reliever. I just want to be sure that anonymous is talking about the same Mike Gonzalez who just had his third MRI in a week - that’s the guy Cashman should have traded for? Melky might not be an everyday player, but that would be because of his own limitations, not the size of his contract.

Thursday, May 24, 2007

Yanks 8-3

The difference between Schilling and Pettite:
Schilling goes 6 and give up a run per inning. Pettite goes 7 and gives up one.

Wednesday, May 23, 2007

Wussina

"According to Moose, dryness in the air caused his antlers to become brittle and he had too much rest, or too little, not sure."

Tuesday, May 22, 2007

The Leader

We're a Yankees blog, but something as dope as this going on in New York will always get coverage by us.

For at least one night, we were reminded that there is still life and talent left in hip-hop. It’s been 20 years since the release of Paid in Full and the current state of rap is a reminder of how much changes over two decades. Synthesizers are replacing samples, lyrics have lost any depth or substance they once had and wardrobes have gone from Coogi and Adidas to Louis Vuitton and BAPE.

Billed only as The 18th Letter and The Leader, Southpaw in Brooklyn subtly advertised the show with a ‘know the deal or don’t show’ attitude. After an hour and half wait, Rakim graced the stage at 2:00AM to a packed house. The material was what you expected, tracks from his extensive catalogue ranging from ageless Eric B. classics like “Paid in Full” and “Don’t Sweat the Technique” and solo singles “When I B On the Mic” and “It’s Been a Long Time.” More impressive than Rakim’s setlist however was his incredible stage presence, unmatched by anyone else and a fine example of how you earn the title The Master.

Rakim’s breath control is simply remarkable. So many great artists on record are a disappointing live act because of their lack of breath control. While many rely on a hypeman to finish a verse or pickup during a loss of stamina, Rakim went on stage with just a mic in hand. Each rhyme came off seamlessly and made everything seem easy. Although the entire show was full of energy and the crowd was live, the place nearly exploded when he brought out KRS-One. Everyone in attendance knew that they were going to be catching one of the greatest of all time but its unlikely anyone anticipated being presented with two of your favorite rappers on one stage.

Monday, May 21, 2007

The Good, The Bad and The Clippard (In three parts)


"Is there really any question whether or not we're resigning Georgy?"

The Good

1. King Jorge the First and Derek Jeter both continue to smoke the ball.

2. Bobby “Remember when I came here late last season and hit .400” Abreu actually showed signs of life. Abreu did a considerably better job of resembling an actual baseball player and not an atrophying one.

3. Andy Pettitte pitched well and deserved to win.

4. Scott Proctor showed that when he is not asked to pitch everyday he can be an effective reliever.

5. Josh Phelps smoked the ball on Saturday, proving that there is an actual viable alternative to Doogie on the Yankees’ bench. Now, I admit this may be due to the fact that Phelps is only hitting lefties, but still, can he really be that bad against righties? (Nice job by Tim McCarver on Saturday pointing out that Phelps approached the at-bat against Wagner convinced he was going to see nothing but fastballs. As McCarver put it “he’s taking fastball swings at sliders.”)

6. A-Rod looked like he might be heating up again. (Even though every loss this season has been entirely and solely his fault.)

7. Tyler Clippard – but more on him later

The Bad

1. Kyle Farnsworth – I just don’t get him. He’s got the body of a Ferrari, but the engine of Pinto. He’s got plus stuff, a great fastball and a killer slider, yet he can never seem to get out of an inning without giving up a run or two. It is hard to put Saturday’s loss on him. But given the way the Yanks were starting to hit and the fact that they have had success in the past against Wagner, you have to wonder how the inning would have played out if they were only down 2 runs instead of 4. The man simply can’t get the big outs with runners on base.

2. Robinson Cano – Look, I understand guys make errors. I’ll even go so far as to concede that the third error was not entirely his fault, as the 2 runs score regardless. But I’m not buying Joe Torre’s reasoning that Cano is so smooth he just looks lackadaisical. The 3 errors Cano made on Saturday (I’m replacing the throw that went off his foot at the end of the game, with the double play he blew by dropping the ball) were all inexcusable. Cano just looked like he couldn’t be bothered. Cano’s play in the field coupled with a complete unwillingness to adapt at the plate, tends to show a guy with an attitude problem. I remember at the beginning of the season, Cano approached the plate and tapped the opposing catcher on the shin guards (not sure if he still does this, will have to watch), the Yankee announcers pointed out that Cano’s actions were pushing the envelope of what is acceptable. Cano’s actions did display nothing but pure arrogance to me. I like Cano, but he’s got to make some changes, at least for appearances sake.

3. Yankee clutch hitting – other than Saturday’s 8th and 9th innings, and Jeter and Damon’s two-out hits yesterday, the team continually fails to drive in runs.

4. Yankee fielding – its awful.

5. Yankee pitchers inability to hold runners on. Again, a nice call by McCarver on Saturday pointing out how the Mets double steal in the 8th changed the situation from bases loaded, two outs, to 2 runs scoring on Julio Franco’s single.

6. Roger Clemens – seriously, he might be the new A-Rod. I’ve already heard one fan explain that since the Yankees have signed Clemens the team has gone into a tailspin. The fan further opined it is because the team is upset about Clemens’ contract. Actually, its probably A-Rods’ fault the Yanks gave Clemens the contract, so maybe Rocket is off the hook.

The Clippard

One of the benefits of having so many rookies pitch for the Yankees this year, is that it gives the team a chance to evaluate which prospects are for real and which aren’t. Phil Hughes has proven that he has a bright future and deserves a spot in the rotation this year. On the other hand pitchers like Matt DeSalvo, Chase Wright, and Jeff Karstens have shown that while they may be serviceable 4th or 5th guys or maybe long relievers, they are not going to lead the Yankee staff after Moose, Clemens and Andy are gone.

It appears that Clippard belongs in the Hughes category (if not quite that good). Clippard faced a tough line up last night, the best in the National League and one of the best in the majors – and he threw 6 innings of one run ball, including 6 strikeouts. The most important aspect of Clippard’s start are the Ks. The problem with pitchers like DeSalvo, Wright and Karstens is that they don’t strike people out. You are putting a lot of pressure on the defense when the ball is constantly being put in play. All three of those pitchers compound the situation by being fly ball guys, because fly balls tend to go over the wall from time to time.

Last night, the second inning was a perfect example of why Clippard and his ability to strike people out is distinguished from DeSalvo, Wright and Karstens. In the second, Clippard got the first out and then gave up a home run to David Wright and a double to Shawn Green. (On a side note, it looks like Wright has gotten over the curse of the home run derby. Side note number two, the pitch Clippard threw to Wright was not a bad pitch, it was a fastball tailing away from Wright, just an example of a great hitter hitting a good pitch.) Now Clippard had just had two of his pitches scorched and he was facing Paul Lo Duca, an overrated but competent hitter. Clippard struck him out. Given, Clippard then walked Damian Easley and John Maine before getting out of the inning. But the point is, that the strike out was huge because it got the second out and kept Green from advancing or scoring. That ability to get the strikeout, is a huge improvement over, say Matt DeSalvo, who probably gives up a fly ball that maybe goes in the gap or over the wall. My point is this, prospects who strike guys out tend to have better futures than guys who don’t. Tyler Clippard, like Phil Hughes, has proven he has that ability. If nothing else, the future is bright for 2/5 of the Yankees rotation.



Friday, May 18, 2007

Of Mice And Men (Part 3 of 3)


"The new look of the Stadium"

Then there’s the Phelps/Giambi/Mientkiedlkja;ldj;lajkfd;lk mess. There is simply no excuse for carrying three first baseman/DH types. Here’s a typical Yankee problem: Mientkiewicz starts at 1B, Giambi DHs, Giambi gets up in the 7th and gets on base, Torre pinch runs with Cairo, Cairo doesn’t score, Torre pinch hits for Cairo with Phelps. Now, Mientkiewicz comes up with runners on-base and because Torre has no one to pinch hit for Dougie-M, Dougie-M does what he does best: ground into a double play, strike out or pop out. You see the problem. Sure some of this could be avoided if Torre would simply stop pinch running for Giambi, then again some of this could be avoided if we actually had a decent bat off the bench who could pinch hit for Doug or Cairo. Actually, this could be avoid if we got rid of Doug and went with Phelps, as Phelps can at least hit the ball with some authority. Unfortunately, Lord Voldemort has placed a spell on the Yankees that forces them to view Doug as a valuable player who saves their pitchers by snagging line drive after line drive that would wind up as a double down the line, but dies in Doogie’s glove. Hopefully, this will be resolved in the next Harry Potter book due this summer.

Finally, there’s the Posada situation. Jorge Posada is this season’s MVP and one of the most underrated players of the past 6 years – end of story. He’s been one of the best hitting catchers in all of baseball for the past 6 years and his defense has grown stronger each year. Even though he is in his thirties, the only catchers who are more dangerous with the bat than Jorge are Victor Martinez, Brian McCann and Joe Mauer. He’s a much more dangerous hitter than Jason Varitek has ever been, and he’s much, much, much, much, much, much, much more dangerous than Paul Lo Duca (unless the danger is in relation to underage Long Island Girls and not pitched baseballs). If Posada were to miss a significant amount of playing time, the Yanks are screwed, done, finished. Imagine replacing a guy whose slugging .548, has an OBP of .422, and is batting .365 with Mr. Zero himself Will Nieves. Now, given Jorge has never been on the DL, but anything is possible and once again it is absolutely inexcusable to have no backup in case Jorge gets hurt. Now, I’d love to see the Yanks get creative and use Phelps as the backup. Michael Kay thinks that’s a terrible idea, because Phelps is not great defensively and it would annoy the pitchers. I wonder how annoyed the pitchers get when there are runners on base and an automatic out at the plate.

The ultimate result of a bad bench is that it exacerbates the bad luck. With Giambi and Damon nursing injuries, there’s no one to ease the pressure on them. Same goes for Abreu and Cano’s slumps. With a payroll approaching $200 million, there’s absolutely no excuse for neglecting the bench. Now, if I were GM, here’s how I would improve the bench:
1. Cut Cairo, Nieves, and Doug
2. Call Kansas and see what it would take to get Jason LaRue, even if it means taking Scott Elarton off their hands. (YES, I stole this idea from www.baseballprospectus.com – Transaction Analysis by Christina Kahrl) But a great idea, is a great idea.
3. Tell Phelps he’s the starting 1b, until Richie Sexson can be pried from Seattle
4. Bring up Kevin Thompson and send down Melky Cabrera (Got Melky, sure, but witty slogan aside, he’s lost at the plate and doing more harm than good).
5. Now that Oakland is awash in outfielders, see if they will trade us Shannon Stewart on the cheap – just to add to the bench.



Of Mice And Men (Part 2 of 3)


"Derek Jeter continues to feed the team"

Clearly, Grand Puba Torre would never pinch hit Cairo, Cabrera or Nieves for his starters (we’ll get to the Phelps/Mientikie%$&^&^ conundrum later), but its not because the starters are so good (well, some of them are), its because Cairo, Cabrera and Nieves stink. Cairo and Nieves are automatic outs, we’d probably be better of sending Larry Bowa and Don Mattingly in as his pinch hitters. So, yes Michael Kay you are correct this bench cannot pinch hit. But, that’s not really the problem. Bench players do not only pinch-hit, they have other useful purposes like waking up Torre when he falls asleep, pinch running for Jason Giambi when he gets to first in a close game and then depriving the Yanks of one of their most potent bats later in the game, and, oh yeah, giving starters the day off. It is the last point that makes the Yankees neglect of their bench inexcusable. The Yanks are an old team, they were an old team in spring training, and they will be old at the end of the season. It was pure folly to presume that Jason Giambi, Johnny Damon, and Hideki Matsui were going to play 162 games. Sure enough, Damon has yet to be truly healthy, Giambi has bone spurs in his heel and Matsui has already been on the DL. Damon and Giambi have courageously avoided the DL, but their injuries are affecting their play (Giambi is 0-18 since developing his problem). Unfortunately, those three at 50% or even 25% optimal health are light years better than whomever would replace them off the bench. While you can’t predict an exact injury, it was not a stretch in the pre-season to figure someone was going to get hurt. A failure to plan for that inevitability is costing the Yankees.

Furthermore, while the Yanks don’t need to pinch-hit for slumping, but non-injured, hitters like Cano and Abreu, it would be nice to give them a day off to get their problems worked out. For instance, last week Boston sat Dustin Pedroia, who had just gotten above the Mendoza line, when they were facing Roy Halladay. Presumably, Boston skipper Terry Francona, did not want his young second baseman to face one of baseball’s best when he was just getting his swing going. Notably, Boston back up Joey Cora went 2-4. Now Cora may not be Honus Wagner, but compared to Cairo he is. See the Yanks have to stick with Abreu and Cano through thick and thin, because they will get hits eventually, we know their back ups may never get a hit again.

Thursday, May 17, 2007

Best Laid Plans of Mice and Men (Part 1 of 3)

(this was one long article but we broke it up into 3 parts cause we know you're not reading anything this long anyway)

Someone once said something about those plans never really working out. Sorry for the lack of originality, I’m still coming to terms with the fact that the Bronx Bombers just got shut down by Horacio (7.00+ ERA) Ramirez. Perhaps, just as he sucked the inspiration out of the Yanks bats, he’s sucked the inspiration out of my keyboard.

It is May 15th, the Yankees are 2 games under .500, and 8.5 games behind the dreaded Red Sox. To make matters worst, according to Steve Goldman of the Yesnetwork.com’s Pinstriped Blog, Yankee fans can’t even fall back on our adjusted record (see www.baseballprospectus.com), as we should only be 19-17, which while over .500, would still be 6.5 behind the Bloody Sox. So, how did the Yanks get here? Well, some of it is obvious; in the beginning of the season the hitting was superlative and the pitching not so much. The disparity between when the Yanks were on the mound versus when they were at the plate could largely be blamed on injuries to Mike Mussina, Chin-ming Wang, and arguably Carl Pavano. Now that the pitching has somewhat righted itself (thanks to Kei “Mr. Homerun” Igawa being sent to the minors and good starts by Matt DeSalvo and Darrel Rasner); the offense has gone the way of the Dodo.

Now, it is not fair to expect Brian Cashman to have foreseen matching slumps by Jason Giambi, Bobby Abreu, Robinson Cano and Alex Rodriguez, converging at the same time. Furthermore, there was no way for Mr. Cashman to predict that Mariano Rivera would wake up on Opening Day and find that he was no longer his dominant self. So the question becomes which of the seasons’ failures are matters of poor design and which are the result of bad luck. Those that are the result of poor design should be correctible, if not this season then in the future, while those that are the result of bad luck are simply that.

To make two simple groups, the following seem to be the result of bad luck:
1. Injuries to the pitching staff (notably Phil Hughes)
2. Abreu, Giambi, Cano and A-Rod all slumping at the same time
3. Injuries to Hideki Matsui, Giambi and Johnny Damon
4. Mo Rivera

The following are the result of bad design:
1. Possibly the worst bench in the bullpen
2. Kei Igawa
3. Counting on Carl Pavano

Now, what is interesting is that some of the bad luck correlates with what appears to be the biggest design failure – the horrific bench. I was listening to Michael Kay on ESPN Radio last night (he is much better in the radio format where he feels less of a need to be a shill for the home team), when a caller proposed that a large part of the Yanks’ problem is the bench. Kay scoffed at the notion, stating that it was ludicrous to blame the Yankees problems on the bench because one would never pinch-hit for Abreu, Damon, Giambi, Cano, etc. He argued that Will (1 hit in 5 years) Nieves was a good back up because he could play defense. Now, I am about to vehemently disagree with Michael Kay, however, I should add that I have heard similar arguments about the Yanks bench from Mike of Mike and the Mad Dog as well as other journalists and pundits. While I understand that one would rarely pinch hit for the above mentioned, that argument simply completely and utterly misses why the Yankees weak bench is hurting the team.

Now, before we discuss why the bench hurts lets take a quick look at the culprits:
Position BA AVG HR RBI RUNS OPS
M. Cabrera OF .226 1 11 8 .516
M. Cairo INF/OF .154 0 0 0 .467
W. Nieves C .040 0 0 1 .080
J. Phelps 1B .256 1 5 4 .700


To be fair, it must be recognized that counting numbers (HR, RBI, R) for bench players will pale in comparison to started due to opportunity. However, the rate numbers (AVG and OPS) paint a grim picture. And, I don’t want to hear any garbage about how these guys just need at-bats, give me a break, you could give Cairo and Nieves 500 at-bats and they will still struggle to come up with 100 hits between them.

Welcome

Welcome to 26GoingOn27, brought to you by a couple of fans who hope number 27 could possibly, somehow still happen this year. We hope to differentiate from the others by being the voice of reason for the bombers. Die-hards, yes. Shills, no. Fair and balanced reporting, we'll try. We are going to present arguments for whats goin down with the Yanks and hope to have people argue, agree, etc with us. As the blog develops and picks up some steam, check back everyday for updates. The first post is already dated by a couple of days, so like the Yanks we're already screwing up. But its still early!!