There is some good news, Alex Rodriguez has returned, as have Mariano Rivera, Andy Pettitte and Jorge Posada. Above all, losing A-Rod would have been absolutely devastating, as there is no way the Yankees could have replaced his production in the line up. There is a huge fall off between A-Rod’s worst season and Wilson Betemit, and regardless of whether you want to hang out with A-Rod, as fans we should all be thanking our lucky stars that Alex will be back. Rivera, Pettitte and Posada all occupy key positions that currently have no understudy. While all three are being overpaid, considering the alternatives, their return will be key to another winning season.
Once again the biggest questions for the Yankees this off season is the pitching. As of now, the rotation would be Andy Pettitte, Chien-Ming Wang, Phil Hughes, Joba Chamberlain, Ian Kennedy and Mike Mussina. The bullpen is Mariano Rivera and, ummm…well, let’s talk about that another time. The rotation is very solid with a ton of upside. It is very possible that Hughes, Chamberlain and Kennedy could soon bring to mind some other big threes, such as John Smoltz, Tom Glavine and Greg Maddux or Tim Hudson, Barry Zito and Mark Mulder. Of course, given the precociousness of young pitchers, they could also all be out of baseball by 2012. Looked at in a vacuum, the Yankees staff projects nothing but sunny days; looked at in comparison to their biggest rivals the Red Sox, the view is a little cloudy. The Sox are going to roll out Josh Beckett, Dice-K (too lazy to look up the proper spelling), Curt Schilling, Jon Lester, Clay Bucholz, Tim Wakefield, and quit possibly Johan Santana. It is that last name that is a major point of concern for the Yankees. The truth is, it will be difficult to beat a very good Boston team as things stand right now. The task will become somewhat Herculean if the Red Sox add baseball’s best pitcher; especially if they do so without giving up their best prospect, Bucholz. (Of course there is a giant asterisk to all of this. The Red Sox would only be unbeatable on paper. There is a chance Becket reverts to 2006, Dice-K does not improve, Santana’s increased HR rate last year was the beginning of a trend, not a blip, Schilling’s aging accelerates, and Bucholz doesn’t pan out – see this is why I hate pitchers.)
So, the question becomes, do the Yankees say damn the torpedoes and acquire Santana no matter what the cost may be. The question is a simple one. If you believe that Santana is the fire-breathing lefty that can lead the Bombers back to the World Series – then you make the trade no matter what. Perhaps the strongest argument to be made for this approach is this: imagine if the Yanks had Santana in games 1 and 4 of the American League Division Series instead of Wang - suddenly, it is not so hard to imagine the Yanks, not the Red Sox, pounding the National League’s latest patsies, the Rockies. Johan Santana could very well be the missing link between the Yankees and their 27th World Championship.
So why isn’t Santana being measured for pinstripes right now? Mostly because Santana is not yet a free agent, and in return for Johan, the Twins are demanding Hughes, Kennedy and Melky Cabrera. Hughes is a blue-chip prospect who projects as a 1 or 2 in anyone’s staff; Kennedy projects as a solid 3, but has the added bonus of already appearing to be a polished pitcher (see Baseball America or Baseball Prospectus, or any game he pitched, if you don’t believe me); while Cabrera is probably going to project out as a 4th outfielder on a good team and a starter on most others.
As of right now, Santana is far better than Hughes, Kennedy or Cabrera. In fact, if everything goes right you hope that Hughes will someday be as good as Santana is now. So why is Hank, Cash and company so reluctant to make this deal? After all prospects are just that, prospects, with no guarantees as to their future. Furthermore, when you’re adding a player of Santana’s stature, you are going to have to give up a lot. Detroit gave up their two best prospects for Miguel Cabrera, Arizona gave up their two best prospects for Dan Haren, and now both teams are favorites to win their respective division. Given, Hughes is far better than any of the prospects given up by either Arizona or Detroit. If the Yanks add Santana, they would also be favorites to win – or would they?
Upon closer inspection, maybe there is a method to Hank and Cash’s madness. First of all, the Yankees would be parting with Cabrera, their starting centerfielder. With Melky gone, the Yankees outfield looks like this – Hideki Matsui in left, Johnny Damon in center, and Bobby Abreu in right. Not only is the outfield old and injury prone, Matsui has no range and can’t throw, Damon has range but can’t throw, and while Abrue has range and can throw, he’s afraid of the wall and has no idea how to take a proper route to a flyball. In other words, unless Santana plans on striking everyone out, his ERA is going to suffer because he will be playing in front of a below average defensive team. Now, Santana might get some of that ERA back because Yankee Stadium is a slight pitcher’s park, but he’d also be dealing with Derek Jeter at shortstop and ?? at first base – not an appealing defensive package. The bombers have missed out no the more appealing centerfield options, and would likely have to resort to Mike Cameron for an outside solution. Cameron is a fantastic fielder and as good a hitter as Melky. But Cameron is injury prone and being heavily pursued by the Phillies right now. If Melky goes, odds are Damon is back in center field this year.
Then there are the two pitchers, Hughes and Kennedy. Make no mistake, despite what some fans have made of him, Ian Kennedy is not the kind of prospect you hold onto at the cost of getting Johan Santana. The issue is not one of talent, but depth. While the Yankee farm system is loaded with pitching prospects, after the big 3, Alan Horne is the only one likely to contribute much in 2008. Therefore, if they trade both Kennedy and Hughes, the rotation will be Santana, Pettitte, Wang, Chamberlain, Moose and Horne. Given that Pettitte and Moose are health risks and Chamberlain has never thrown more than 150 innings in a season, this is a very shallow rotation. Matters would get worst in 2009, when Pettitte and Moose leave (although, there are likely to be other pitchers on the market by that point). By holding onto Kennedy, the staff is Santana, Pettitte, Wang, Chamberlain, Kennedy, Moose – a far deeper option.
So it comes down to this, if the Yanks really believe they are one Johan away from a World Series, they should do the trade. However, if the Yanks believe that Hughes will be a 1 or 2 for the next ten years, that Kennedy will be a 3 for the next ten years, and that Melky will be a solid contributor until someone better comes along – then they should stand pat. As for me, I’m torn. I’ve howled and ranted about my love for Phil Hughes and after watching him pitch, nothing has changed. I’m not as high on Kennedy and Cabrera, but can admit I’m not exactly looking forward to runners going from first to third on a fly ball because Damon can’t throw. Ultimately, I’d hold off for now. See how the market develops and hope the Twins hold on to Santana, so that the Yanks can sign him in the off season. Then again, we would still have Joba, and the thought of him and Santana anchoring our staff for the next six years – well, it gives me shivers.
