Thursday, August 2, 2007

Trade Deadline Wrap-Up


'Don't believe the hype' would be a pretty accurate description of this year's trade deadline. The biggest name to move was Mark Teixeira. Other than that, we saw a whole bunch of teams doing minor patchwork to set themselves up for the stretch run. There are a couple of contributing factors to this: the Wild Card race in both leagues is wide open so a lot of teams weren't ready to deal themselves out; teams are beginning to recognize that mortgaging the future for a middle reliever or an aging starter doesn't work out in the long term; and there simply weren't that many big name players on the market. (Note: None of this applies to the Pittsburgh who have made one of the most non-sensical trade in the history of baseball. Oh well - Viva Matt Morris - for whatever that's worth).

So how did our Yankees do? Pretty well I'd say. Scott Proctor for Wilson Betemit is pretty much a no-brainer. Anytime you can trade a middle reliever without dominating stuff, whose arm may disintegrate at any moment, for a switch-hitting, 25 year old, quasi-prospect you've done well. Betemit is already a better option off the bench than Miguel Cairo and there's a chance he could still develop into an everyday player. More important was adding Jose Molina before the trade deadline. Those two deals have gone some way towards improving the Yankees biggest problem the atrocious bench. And, Cashman managed to address a major problem without mortgaging the future.

I know some people have killed the Cashman for not adding Eric Gagne, but those people should all get the gas face. While Gagne would have been nice, we need to remember that this is Eric Gagne Model 2007, not Eric Gagne model 2002 to 2004. This year, Gagne has thrown 33.3 innings pitched, he missed time at the beginning of the season, struck out 29 and saved 16 games, his ERA is 2.16. While those numbers look good, there is a giant however coming, that however is what Gagne has done since July 1st. Since July 1st Gagne has made 11 appearances, he has pitched 11.1 innings, over that span he has allowed 11 hits and 5 runs, his ERA doubled from 1.11 to 2.16. Those are hardly dominating numbers. What we're dealing with here is the myth of the closer, essentially if a guy has had success closing in the past, he will continue to do so, regardless of how bad his peripheral numbers are (For more evidence of this phenomenon, see: Borowski, Joe, Jones, Todd, or our very own Farnsworth, Kyle). Furthermore, Texas was asking for Melky Cabrera or Ian Kennedy in return for Gagne. It is never a good idea to trade your future CF and a future starting pitcher, who is dominating in the minors, for 9 weeks of a middle reliever who has had major arm problems. Gagne is no longer a dominating pitcher, and while his addition would have been nice, there's no reason to believe that Joba Chamberlain cannot do at least as well as Gagne would have.

More to the point, the Yankees are playing for their playoff lives. They need to either catch Cleveland or Boston to get into the playoffs. While they have Cleveland in their sights, they're still behind the 8 Ball. Mortgaging the future for a middle reliever doesn't make sense for a team fighting to make the playoffs. Had they made the trade and missed, this could have been the kind of trade that has disastrous consequences. You know, the ones where teams give up young prospects for middle relievers and don't win anything.

There is also the fact that Gagne would have been much more useful to Cleveland than he is to Boston. Considering, the Yanks have Cleveland in their sights for the Wild Card Spot, this is somewhat of a win.

Now, while getting Gagne made little to no sense for the Yanks, it does somewhat make sense for Boston. I'm a firm believer in the idea that if you can make a trade that will win you a World Series now, you do it without regard for future implications. I'm not saying you trade your top prospect for a lefty pinch hitter, but teams should always play to win now. If the Red Sox feel that the only thing they need is another middle reliever to guarantee post season success, they did the right thing. The Sox gave up Kason Gabbard, David Murphy and Engel Beltre, and while it is possible that one or two of those players may turn into decent major leaguers, this is hardly giving up the farm. While I feel that Gagne is overrated, this is the kind of trade first place teams with huge leads should be making.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

interesting take, i agree with you guys for the most part. as riled up as yankee fans got when they heard that proctor (& gamble) was shipped to hollywood for wilson bettemit (or as us met fans now refer to him as beat-a-met, i think hes batting 1.000 against them this year) i thought it was a very good trade. yanks were in deperate need of a solid bench player and they got a versatile infielder with nice pop. he also serves as some insurance if a-rod walks although i cant see them playing him as the everyday third baseman. all they gave up was an ineffective reliever who has been overworked...every yankee fan knew he was just going to become another sturtze/quantril/gordon...give joba a chance and see what he can do.

as far as the gagne trade goes, i didnt realize he has been so bad in july. i still would have liked to see the yanks go after him...a straight up trade of him for ian kennedy wouldnt have been a bad move in my opinion. kennedey is projected as a three-spot pitcher so its not like they would be giving up phil hughes. if anything i would be more concerned with gange getting hurt again than turning to shit, i think he is still solid and a 8-9 combo of gange/rivera would be close to the old days of rivera/wetland. i just think that by adding him everyone woudl also get better, allowing viczacino, myers and bruney to be used more in specialty situations and not getting overworked as much. anyway, its not a clear decision so ill trust cashman i guess, hes the GM, not me.

i hear ya on gagne not going to cleveland but at the same time, i really dont think the division should be an afterthought to the yanks. red sox never play well in teh second half, beckett's finger herpes are due to come back any day now and the yankee bats look like they are actually clicking now and not just on random days. if the yanks make the playoffs, i am not comfortable at all with this bullpen...